Forget, for a moment, the ambiguity over whether Donald Trump’s
“great border wall” might actually be a “virtual” barrier, as some of
his surrogates have suggested.
Ignore the Republican presidential nominee’s lack of details about
how a proposed “deportation force” would round up 11 million people
living illegally in the U.S.
And disregard hints last week that Trump might consider “a softening”
on allowing undocumented immigrants to stay in America, provided they
pay back taxes.
If you took Trump at his word on Wednesday night, confusion over
those matters were all part of the muddled past. Trump’s major
immigration policy speech in Arizona was his chance to introduce
something else: clarity and moderation.
He flirted with the former, laying out a 10-point plan. But he
outright spurned the latter, reaffirming previous tough rhetoric on
illegal immigration that has found traction among a core base of white
males. Trump leads Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton 76
to 14 among white men without college degrees, according to Washington
Post-ABC polling.
“I’m going to deliver a detailed policy address on one of the
greatest challenges facing our country today,” Trump said Wednesday,
speaking in the state that adopted Senate Bill 1070, known at the time
of its passage in 2010 as the harshest anti-immigration law in America.
“Are you ready?” Trump teased, amid cheers. “Are. You. Ready!”
But if it was an actual lucid immigration policy that political
observers were seeking, Trump delivered instead “the same old song,”
says Laura Gomez, an expert on Mexican-American immigration and the dean
of social sciences at the University of California in Los Angeles.
“He promised a policy speech, but there was nothing specific in his points.”
‘There will be no amnesty’
The wall along the Southern border? “Mexico will pay for the wall,”
Trump vowed again, adding that it would be “impenetrable” and
“physical,” replete with “the best technology” such as tunnel sensors.
The “new deportation task force”? It’s coming, along with 5,000 more
border patrol agents and three times more Immigration and Customs
Enforcement officers, he said, without elaborating on who might foot
that bill.
As for amnesty? “There will be no amnesty,” Trump said. “Our message
to the world will be this: You cannot obtain legal status, or become a
citizen of the United States by illegally entering our country.” (Last
week, he told Fox News host Sean Hannity that his government could “work
with” undocumented immigrants who can pay their back taxes.)
Those expecting Trump to broaden his base with Wednesday’s speech are
likely disappointed, says former Republican strategist Jarryd Gonzalez.
“Trump’s speech was USDA prime grade red meat for the Republican
base. It was a hardline speech that scored well among white males, did
nothing to expand his support of women or millennials and continued to
alienate the fastest growing population in the U.S., Latinos.”
Instead of running a “typical general election” model to appeal to a
larger electorate, Gonzalez says, Trump appears to have chosen the
“dance with the ones who brung you strategy,” deepening his appeal among
immigration-centred Republicans.
Gomez noted that about two-thirds of Hispanic voters in the 2008 and
2012 elections voted for U.S. President Barack Obama. A more moderate
tone from Trump might have helped him capture a more conservative,
Republican bloc of Hispanic voters.
“The question now is how much of a drop-off will there be? How many
Hispanics will leave the Republican party now?” she says. “That might
have been the audience tonight waiting to see if there would be any
softening of his position.”
The fallout among Hispanic conservatives was almost immediate. According to a
report by Politico,
major Latino surrogates for Trump — among them Jacob Monty, who served
on Trump’s National Hispanic Advisory Council, and Alfonso Aguilar, who
heads the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles — were
reconsidering their support. Monty reportedly resigned following Trump’s
speech.
Luis Rubio, a global fellow with the Wilson Center’s Mexico
institute, summed up the tone of Trump’s speech as “hard-line all the
way.”
“He’ll alienate independents and strengthen his core constituency,” he said from Mexico City.
The speech was vintage Trump, in that it was a clear departure from
what appeared to be a shift towards moderation last week. In a
particularly remarkable televised moment on Fox News host Sean Hannity’s
immigration town hall, he even live-polled the Texas audience,
apparently to test out a possible immigration policy pivot.
Watch Trump live poll an crowd on immigration policy:
Trump began by asking whether otherwise law-abiding illegal immigrants ought to be “thrown out,” or shown some leniency.
“I’ll ask the audience,” Trump announced. “You have somebody who’s terrific who’s been here…”
“Twenty years,” Hannity offered.
“Right, long time,” Trump continued. “Long court proceeding, long
everything, OK? In other words, to get them out. Can we go through a
process? Or do you think they have to get out? Tell me. I mean, I don’t
know. You tell me.”
Gomez also watched the clip.
“He tried floating [an alternative to deportation] about three times,
but only got the ‘deport’ em’ audience more riled up,” she said.
With just 67 days to go until election day, it’s become increasingly
crucial for Trump to be unequivocal about the linchpin issue of his
campaign.
“Trump had still not made a definition of what he meant by his
immigration policy,” Rubio said. “He needed to define that more
specifically.”
More specifics, ‘more enemies’
The problem with doing so, according to Rubio, is that he risks
either alienating a base of hard-line supporters demanding tough action
against illegal residents, or he risks turning off the moderate
conservatives and independents he needs to win.
“The more specifics he provides, the more friends he secures,” Rubio says, “and the more enemies he guarantees.”
As far as Tucson, Ariz., Trump supporter Bill Beard is concerned,
details are overrated. The chairman of the Pima County Republican Party
hasn’t thought much beyond Trump’s fundamental approach of “fixing the
immigration laws.”
Trump’s speech reaffirmed the red-meat stance on immigration for
which Beard has long supported the Republican candidate. He’s less
worried about policy specifics.
“Frankly, I think for the average voter out there, they’re not
concerned with the details of having Mexico pay to build the wall,”
Beard says. “The fundamental thing is Trump is going to make Mexico pay
for the wall. I don’t get caught up in the details.”
